Neural Regeneration Research ›› 2012, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (7): 540-545.

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Long-term prognosis and prognostic determinants of patients with first attack of mild and moderate ischemia at Beijing community hospitals

Xianghua Fang1, 2, Liming Li1, Xinqing Zhang3, Hongjun Liu2, Hongmei Zhang4, Xiaoming Qin3   

  1. 1 Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Sciences Center, Beijing 100191, China
    2 Department of Evidence-based Medicine, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100053, China
    3 Department of Neurology, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100053, China
    4 Department of Geriatrics, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100053, China
  • Received:2011-11-25 Revised:2012-02-02 Online:2012-03-05 Published:2012-03-05
  • Contact: Liming Li, Professor, Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Sciences Center, Beijing 100191, China llm20110820@163.com
  • About author:Xianghua Fang★, Master, Investigator, Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Sciences Center, Beijing 100191, China; Department of Evidence-based Medicine, Xuanwu Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100053, China

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Abstract:

A total of 710 patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were consecutively recruited between January 2003 and December 2004 from five community hospitals/stations in five districts of Beijing, China. As of December 31, 2008, a total of 2 477 person-years were followed-up. During the five-year follow-ups, 117 adverse events occurred, including all-cause death and acute cardiovascular events (recurrent stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and sudden death). The five-year cumulative mortality rate was 2.18/100 person-years (54 cases), with 3.88/100 person-years (96 cases) of acute cardiovascular events and 3.02/100 person-years (75 cases) of recurrent stroke. Multiple factor analyses using the Cox proportional hazards ratio models showed that age, diabetes, and dependence of activities of daily living were independent predictors for death, acute cardiovascular disease events, or recurrent stroke. The results demonstrated that recurrent stroke was a major vascular disease that affected the prognosis of mild or moderate stroke patients. Secondary prevention of stroke patients should include active management of vascular risk factors and rehabilitation.

Key words: ischemic stroke, follow-up study, predictors, prognosis, recurrent stroke, survival